TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 20, 5:43 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Malaika Rapolu and Olivia Lincer in the W50 Austin, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 20, 2026 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Malaika Rapolu' if Malaika Rapolu advances against Olivia Lincer. This market will resolve to 'Olivia Lincer' if Olivia Lincer advances against Malaika Rapolu. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Malaika Rapolu and Olivia Lincer in the W50 Austin, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 20, 2026 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Malaika Rapolu' if Malaika Rapolu advances against Olivia Lincer. This market will resolve to 'Olivia Lincer' if Olivia Lincer advances against Malaika Rapolu. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market’s probabilities are driven by traders directly expressing their beliefs about the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between the two, opportunities for arbitrage may arise, as traders attempt to profit from the difference. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, and neither guarantees the actual result of the W50 Austin tennis match.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of a specific outcome. As more shares are traded, the price adjusts to reflect the collective sentiment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. Higher demand for shares in a particular outcome drives up the price, increasing its implied probability, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date information and expectations of traders.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results of the W50 Austin tennis match, determining which player ultimately wins. The platform will verify the result against official tournament records and reporting to finalize the market and distribute payouts to winning share holders. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand how this market will settle.
Several factors could influence the probabilities in this market before the Oct 27, 2026 resolution date. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected upsets in earlier rounds of the tournament, or even weather forecasts impacting the match schedule, could also cause movement. Furthermore, large trades by influential participants on Polymarket could create short-term price fluctuations, reflecting a change in perceived probabilities for the W50 Austin tennis match.