TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 4:15 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Ai Maruyama and Naomi McKenzie in the W35 Wagga Wagga, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 7:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ai Maruyama' if Ai Maruyama advances against Naomi McKenzie. This market will resolve to 'Naomi McKenzie' if Naomi McKenzie advances against Ai Maruyama. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Ai Maruyama and Naomi McKenzie in the W35 Wagga Wagga, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 7:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ai Maruyama' if Ai Maruyama advances against Naomi McKenzie. This market will resolve to 'Naomi McKenzie' if Naomi McKenzie advances against Ai Maruyama. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more people buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the collective intelligence of traders, and the platform facilitates this price discovery process with real-time data and order books.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Ai Maruyama vs Naomi McKenzie match, as reported by a recognized sports authority. Traders will be able to see the final outcome reflected in the market, and winning shares will be redeemable for the corresponding payout based on the final price at resolution. The platform ensures a transparent and verifiable resolution process.
Several signals could influence this market before Oct 11, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to either Ai Maruyama or Naomi McKenzie would likely cause significant movement. Changes in rankings, recent match performance, or even weather conditions (if the match is outdoors) could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about coaching changes or strategic shifts could also play a role. Overall, any information that alters the perceived probability of either athlete winning will likely be reflected in the market price.