TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 11:50 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Mariella Thamm and Savine ERLER in the W35 Villeneuve d'Ascq, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 7:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mariella Thamm' if Mariella Thamm advances against Savine ERLER. This market will resolve to 'Savine ERLER' if Savine ERLER advances against Mariella Thamm. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Mariella Thamm and Savine ERLER in the W35 Villeneuve d'Ascq, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 7:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mariella Thamm' if Mariella Thamm advances against Savine ERLER. This market will resolve to 'Savine ERLER' if Savine ERLER advances against Mariella Thamm. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds due to varying information sources and incentives. Sportsbooks typically set odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs. Discrepancies can arise from differing perceptions of player form, injury news, or even subtle factors not fully captured by conventional models. It’s common to see prediction markets incorporate information more quickly than sportsbooks, especially in response to breaking news or shifts in public opinion regarding the Villeneuve d'Ascq tennis match.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome of the match. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders believe Mariella Thamm will win, the price of shares representing her victory will increase, and vice versa for Savine Erler. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market constantly adjusts to new information and reflects the collective intelligence of the traders participating in this market.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the W35 Villeneuve d'Ascq tennis match between Mariella Thamm and Savine Erler, as reported by a recognized tennis authority. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which player won the match and settle the market accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the resolution date approaches, ensuring they are aware of the final result.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or even updated rankings could influence trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about player form or strategic changes could also cause shifts in the odds. Furthermore, significant betting activity or large trades on Polymarket itself can create momentum and impact the price of shares. Monitoring tennis news sources and observing trading volume will be key to understanding potential movements in this market leading up to Oct 11, 2026.