TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 8:59 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Francesca Gandolfi and Federica Bilardo in the W35 Santa Margherita di Pula, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Francesca Gandolfi' if Francesca Gandolfi advances against Federica Bilardo. This market will resolve to 'Federica Bilardo' if Federica Bilardo advances against Francesca Gandolfi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Francesca Gandolfi and Federica Bilardo in the W35 Santa Margherita di Pula, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Francesca Gandolfi' if Francesca Gandolfi advances against Federica Bilardo. This market will resolve to 'Federica Bilardo' if Federica Bilardo advances against Francesca Gandolfi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a more accurate forecast than traditional sportsbook odds, as they aggregate the wisdom of the crowd and allow participants to hedge their bets. However, sportsbook odds may initially be more readily available and widely publicized. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, particularly before significant events or when information asymmetry exists. This market, like others, can offer a different perspective than traditional betting venues, potentially identifying mispriced probabilities based on collective intelligence. Comparing the two can be a valuable exercise for informed decision-making.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome of the Gandolfi vs Bilardo match. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective prediction of market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts, providing a real-time assessment of the likelihood of each outcome. The current price indicates the market’s consensus probability, and traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the event's result.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be determined by the official outcome of the W35 Santa Margherita di Pula match between Francesca Gandolfi and Federica Bilardo, as reported by the governing tennis authority. The platform will verify the result against publicly available data to ensure accuracy and transparency. Participants should monitor official sources for updates as the resolution date approaches to understand how the outcome will be determined and verified.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Any news regarding player form, potential injuries to either Francesca Gandolfi or Federica Bilardo, or changes in playing conditions could influence trading activity. Unexpected results in preceding matches for either player could also shift market sentiment. Furthermore, major announcements related to the tournament itself, such as schedule changes or venue updates, might impact the perceived probabilities. Monitoring tennis news and analysis will be crucial for understanding potential catalysts that could affect this market.