TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 15, 5:04 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Lan Mi and Maria Sholokhova in the W35 Redding, CA, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 15, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lan Mi' if Lan Mi advances against Maria Sholokhova. This market will resolve to 'Maria Sholokhova' if Maria Sholokhova advances against Lan Mi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Lan Mi and Maria Sholokhova in the W35 Redding, CA, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 15, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lan Mi' if Lan Mi advances against Maria Sholokhova. This market will resolve to 'Maria Sholokhova' if Maria Sholokhova advances against Lan Mi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a different set of information and incentives than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while prediction markets aim to represent the true probability of an outcome as determined by traders. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially early in the market lifecycle. This market, like others, can offer a distinct perspective on the likely result compared to conventional betting options, potentially identifying mispriced opportunities based on collective intelligence.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of a particular outcome in the Lan Mi vs Maria Sholokhova match. As more shares are purchased for a specific outcome, its price increases, reflecting a higher implied probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring; a share priced at 60 means there's a 60% implied probability of that outcome being correct. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the aggregated wisdom of the crowd.
This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result of the Lan Mi vs Maria Sholokhova match will be used to determine the winning share(s). Resolution will depend on official results published by the governing body of the competition, ensuring a transparent and verifiable process. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final outcome of the match and their shareholdings in the winning outcome(s).
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market before Oct 22, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in coaching strategies, or unexpected performance in preceding matches for either Lan Mi or Maria Sholokhova could significantly shift trader sentiment. Publicly available analysis from sports commentators and experts could also impact the market, as could large-volume trades from informed participants. Unexpected developments leading up to the match are likely to be reflected in the price of shares, demonstrating the market’s responsiveness to new information.