TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 22, 7:56 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Marie Vogt and Baotong Xu in the W35 Monastir, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 22, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marie Vogt' if Marie Vogt advances against Baotong Xu. This market will resolve to 'Baotong Xu' if Baotong Xu advances against Marie Vogt. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Marie Vogt and Baotong Xu in the W35 Monastir, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 22, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marie Vogt' if Marie Vogt advances against Baotong Xu. This market will resolve to 'Baotong Xu' if Baotong Xu advances against Marie Vogt. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates a broader range of information and opinions. It’s common to see discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and sportsbook odds, especially when there’s significant public interest or uncertainty surrounding the event. These differences can present opportunities for arbitrage or informed betting.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The market’s depth and liquidity, indicated by the trading volume, also play a role in price discovery.
This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Marie Vogt vs Baotong Xu match as reported by the governing tennis authority. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which outcome is the winner and distribute payouts accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could significantly shift expectations. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players, or broader shifts in tennis rankings, might also impact trading activity. Public sentiment, as reflected in social media and expert analysis, could also contribute to price movements. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential shifts in this market.