TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 10:02 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Baotong Xu and Miroslava Medvedeva in the W35 Lagos, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Baotong Xu' if Baotong Xu advances against Miroslava Medvedeva. This market will resolve to 'Miroslava Medvedeva' if Miroslava Medvedeva advances against Baotong Xu. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Baotong Xu and Miroslava Medvedeva in the W35 Lagos, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Baotong Xu' if Baotong Xu advances against Miroslava Medvedeva. This market will resolve to 'Miroslava Medvedeva' if Miroslava Medvedeva advances against Baotong Xu. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd effect, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks may set initial lines based on power rankings and expert analysis, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own information and insights. This can lead to discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. It's common to see prediction markets incorporate information faster than sportsbooks, and they may be less susceptible to biases present in traditional oddsmaking. Comparing the two can offer a more comprehensive view of the expected outcome.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform uses a constant product market maker model, meaning the product of the liquidity for each outcome remains constant, influencing price movements based on supply and demand. This dynamic pricing allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the W35 Lagos match between Baotong Xu and Miroslava Medvedeva, as determined by the tournament organizers. The platform will verify the result against publicly available data to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their positions based on the final outcome of this market. The process aims to provide a clear and reliable resolution for all participants.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market before Oct 13, 2026. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could significantly impact trading activity. Unexpected upsets in earlier rounds of the tournament, or shifts in public perception of each player's chances, could also drive price movements. Furthermore, large trading volumes from informed participants could signal new information or a change in sentiment. Monitoring tennis news and analyzing trading patterns on Polymarket will be key to understanding potential catalysts for price changes.