TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 23, 9:37 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Connie Ma and Astra Sharma in the W35 Bakersfield, CA, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 23, 2026 at 4:23PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Connie Ma' if Connie Ma advances against Astra Sharma. This market will resolve to 'Astra Sharma' if Astra Sharma advances against Connie Ma. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Connie Ma and Astra Sharma in the W35 Bakersfield, CA, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 23, 2026 at 4:23PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Connie Ma' if Connie Ma advances against Astra Sharma. This market will resolve to 'Astra Sharma' if Astra Sharma advances against Connie Ma. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, but may adjust less quickly to new information. This market, driven by traders on Polymarket, can incorporate a wider range of factors and react more rapidly to developments like player injuries or changes in playing conditions. It's common to see discrepancies, especially as the event draws closer and more information becomes available.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price will fluctuate, providing a dynamic assessment of the match's potential results. The current price indicates the collective prediction of all traders on the platform.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Connie Ma vs Astra Sharma match as declared by the governing tennis authority. The platform will verify the result against widely available sources to determine which player won and settle the market accordingly. The final result will be the determining factor for payouts.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before the match concludes. Any news regarding player form, potential injuries to either Connie Ma or Astra Sharma, or changes to playing conditions (such as weather affecting an outdoor court) could all shift the odds. Unexpected announcements about coaching changes or strategic adjustments could also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, significant betting activity or large trades on Polymarket itself can create momentum and drive price movements.