TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 5:27 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Zarah Mughal and Elizaveta Smirnova in the W15 Sharm ElSheikh, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 at 3:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Zarah Mughal' if Zarah Mughal advances against Elizaveta Smirnova. This market will resolve to 'Elizaveta Smirnova' if Elizaveta Smirnova advances against Zarah Mughal. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Zarah Mughal and Elizaveta Smirnova in the W15 Sharm ElSheikh, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 at 3:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Zarah Mughal' if Zarah Mughal advances against Elizaveta Smirnova. This market will resolve to 'Elizaveta Smirnova' if Elizaveta Smirnova advances against Zarah Mughal. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of wisdom than sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance their risk and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective intelligence of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, especially when there's significant public interest or disagreement about the likely result. Often, prediction markets can be more accurate than traditional betting markets, as they aggregate diverse perspectives and are less susceptible to biases inherent in sportsbook modeling. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, the price increases, reflecting growing confidence. Conversely, selling pressure drives the price down. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds continuously adjust to incorporate new information and changing sentiment. The market's efficiency depends on active participation and informed trading.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Sharm ElSheikh tennis match between Zarah Mughal and Elizaveta Smirnova. The platform will rely on established sports news sources and official tournament results to determine the winner. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome. Traders should monitor these sources as the event concludes to understand how the market will be settled.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market before the match concludes. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or updates on player form could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in preceding matches for either player could also impact the odds. Furthermore, large trades by influential market participants could create short-term price fluctuations. Monitoring tennis news, social media discussions, and the trading volume on Polymarket will be crucial for understanding potential market movements leading up to Nov 2, 2026.