TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 5:27 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Mariam Gabr and Darya Volkova in the W15 Sharm ElSheikh, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mariam Gabr' if Mariam Gabr advances against Darya Volkova. This market will resolve to 'Darya Volkova' if Darya Volkova advances against Mariam Gabr. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Mariam Gabr and Darya Volkova in the W15 Sharm ElSheikh, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mariam Gabr' if Mariam Gabr advances against Darya Volkova. This market will resolve to 'Darya Volkova' if Darya Volkova advances against Mariam Gabr. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and often incorporate a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading based on their own information and beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome, they can create price divergence. It’s common to see prediction markets outperform sportsbooks, especially when there’s strong public interest or access to unique information.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing different outcomes of the Sharm ElSheikh tennis match, and the price of each share reflects the market’s current assessment of that outcome’s probability. As more shares are traded, the price adjusts to find an equilibrium point. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are influenced by various factors, including news about player form, injury reports, and overall betting sentiment. The total volume traded provides insight into the level of interest and confidence in each outcome.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Sharm ElSheikh tennis match between Mariam Gabr and Darya Volkova. The platform will verify the result against official tournament data to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual winner of the match. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will be entitled to a payout based on the final share price at resolution.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Any news regarding player injuries or changes in form for either Mariam Gabr or Darya Volkova would likely impact trading activity. Unexpected weather conditions in Sharm ElSheikh, if they affect playing conditions, could also shift the odds. Furthermore, any significant betting activity reported from traditional sportsbooks might influence traders on Polymarket. Finally, even general tennis news or analysis predicting a likely winner could sway market sentiment and cause price fluctuations.