TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 1:51 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Jian Ibrahim and Kate Bierhoff in the W15 Sharm ElSheikh, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 8:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jian Ibrahim' if Jian Ibrahim advances against Kate Bierhoff. This market will resolve to 'Kate Bierhoff' if Kate Bierhoff advances against Jian Ibrahim. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Jian Ibrahim and Kate Bierhoff in the W15 Sharm ElSheikh, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 8:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jian Ibrahim' if Jian Ibrahim advances against Kate Bierhoff. This market will resolve to 'Kate Bierhoff' if Kate Bierhoff advances against Jian Ibrahim. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks incorporate a ‘vig’ or commission into their odds, ensuring a profit margin, while this market allows traders to directly assess the probability of an outcome. Discrepancies can arise from differing levels of information, varying participant expertise, and the incentive structures of each venue. If there’s a significant difference, it might indicate that the market believes a sportsbook is mispricing the event, or vice versa, presenting a potential opportunity for informed traders.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of a particular outcome. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a probability estimate. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability of a specific outcome is reflected in the share price; a higher price suggests greater confidence in that outcome. The market’s price is solely determined by traders on Polymarket and their collective assessment of the available information.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Sharm ElSheikh tennis match between Jian Ibrahim and Kate Bierhoff. The platform will verify the final score and declare a winner, triggering the payout of shares to those who correctly predicted the outcome. Traders should monitor official sources for the match result to understand when the market will be settled.
Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. Any news regarding player form, potential injuries to either Jian Ibrahim or Kate Bierhoff, or changes in playing conditions (weather, court surface) could all impact trader sentiment. Unexpected results in preceding matches for either player, or analysis from tennis experts suggesting a shift in competitive advantage, could also lead to significant price movements. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential shifts in the market before Oct 12, 2026.