TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 9:15 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Marta Soriano Santiago and Sophia Biolay in the W15 Monastir, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 3, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marta Soriano Santiago' if Marta Soriano Santiago advances against Sophia Biolay. This market will resolve to 'Sophia Biolay' if Sophia Biolay advances against Marta Soriano Santiago. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Marta Soriano Santiago and Sophia Biolay in the W15 Monastir, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 3, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marta Soriano Santiago' if Marta Soriano Santiago advances against Sophia Biolay. This market will resolve to 'Sophia Biolay' if Sophia Biolay advances against Marta Soriano Santiago. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of forecasters, potentially differing from those offered by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance their risk, while this market is driven purely by traders’ willingness to buy or sell based on their beliefs. Therefore, discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply varying interpretations of the players’ chances. It’s common to see this market incorporate information and adjust more rapidly to new developments than traditional odds.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. Conversely, selling pressure drives the price down. This dynamic process ensures that the market price is a constantly updated assessment of the likely result of the Monastir tennis match.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Monastir tennis match between Marta Soriano Santiago and Sophia Biolay, as reported by a recognized tennis authority. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual event winner. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final, confirmed result.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could significantly shift the odds. For example, reports of an injury to one of the players, or a change in the court surface, would likely cause a reassessment of their chances. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players could also impact market sentiment. Furthermore, large trades on Polymarket itself, driven by informed traders, can create momentum and move the market price.