TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 8:14 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Marie Vogt and Yui Watanabe in the W15 Monastir, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 28, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marie Vogt' if Marie Vogt advances against Yui Watanabe. This market will resolve to 'Yui Watanabe' if Yui Watanabe advances against Marie Vogt. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Marie Vogt and Yui Watanabe in the W15 Monastir, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 28, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marie Vogt' if Marie Vogt advances against Yui Watanabe. This market will resolve to 'Yui Watanabe' if Yui Watanabe advances against Marie Vogt. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamics of supply and demand within the prediction market. It's common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information than sportsbooks, especially in response to breaking news or unexpected developments.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, reflecting growing confidence. Conversely, selling pressure drives prices down. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds are constantly updated to reflect the latest information and sentiment.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Marie Vogt vs Yui Watanabe match as reported by the governing tennis organization. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine the winning outcome and distribute payouts accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand how this market will be settled.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Nov 4, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or significant shifts in player form could all impact trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players, or even broader trends in tennis performance, could also play a role. Furthermore, large trades by influential market participants could create short-term price movements, reflecting their assessment of the match’s likely outcome. Monitoring tennis news and observing trading volume will be key to understanding potential shifts.