TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 2:18 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Maria Moraes and Sophia Santos in the W15 Maceio, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Maria Moraes' if Maria Moraes advances against Sophia Santos. This market will resolve to 'Sophia Santos' if Sophia Santos advances against Maria Moraes. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Maria Moraes and Sophia Santos in the W15 Maceio, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Maria Moraes' if Maria Moraes advances against Sophia Santos. This market will resolve to 'Sophia Santos' if Sophia Santos advances against Maria Moraes. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. If there’s a significant discrepancy, it could indicate that the market believes the sportsbook has mispriced the probability of a particular outcome. It’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, but are formed through different mechanisms and with different incentives.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome of the Maria Moraes vs Sophia Santos match. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more shares bought, the higher the price, and vice versa, creating a dynamic market that responds to new information and changing sentiment. This system allows for a real-time assessment of probabilities based on the aggregated opinions of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Maria Moraes vs Sophia Santos match, as reported by a recognized tennis authority. The platform will then determine the winning share(s) and distribute payouts accordingly. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process, reflecting the actual outcome of the sporting event.
Several factors could influence this market before Oct 18, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or updates on their recent performance could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about coaching changes or strategic adjustments could also impact the perceived probabilities. Furthermore, significant shifts in public opinion, as reflected in other polls or analyses, might lead to adjustments in trading activity. Monitoring these signals is crucial for understanding potential movements in this market.