TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
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2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
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MATCHED EVENTS:
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Polymarket:
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VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Vitoria wins by more than 2.5 goals
- Kalshi
Vitoria wins by more than 2.5 goals - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 6, 2026
Time left: 04d:01h:04m
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This market assesses the potential margin of victory in an upcoming Brazilian Serie A soccer match between Vitoria and Fluminense. It focuses on how many goals the winning team scores beyond their opponent, with different thresholds for each team. Outcomes depend entirely on the final score after regular time, excluding extra periods or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates various goal-differential scenarios in the Vitoria versus Fluminense Brasileiro Serie A match scheduled for November 6, 2026. Resolution occurs based on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty kicks are irrelevant. Four distinct outcome categories exist: Vitoria winning by more than 2.5 goals, Vitoria winning by more than 1.5 goals, Fluminense winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Fluminense winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each category resolves to 'Yes' only if its specific condition is met; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The governing body is the professional Brasileiro Serie A league, and Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with it. All trademarks and branding belong to their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their view, leading to a potentially more accurate assessment of probabilities. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into where the crowd believes the value lies in the Vitoria vs Fluminense match.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the perceived probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set prices efficiently, as they can profit from correctly anticipating the outcome. As more traders participate, the market price tends to converge towards a more accurate representation of the true probability of the event. The current market indicates what traders collectively believe about the likelihood of each result in the Vitoria vs Fluminense match.
This market resolves around Nov 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the Vitoria vs Fluminense match, as officially recorded by the governing sports authority. The market will determine which outcome—a Vitoria win, a Fluminense win, or a draw—is the correct one based on this official result. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their stake.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Nov 7, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, tactical changes, or even weather conditions could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about key players being unavailable or changes in coaching staff could significantly impact the perceived probabilities. Additionally, major upsets in other relevant matches or shifts in public opinion could also contribute to price movements. Monitoring these signals and events is crucial for understanding potential shifts in the market for the Vitoria vs Fluminense match.