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419,492

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Virginia vs SMU: Spread
kalshi

What is the result of Virginia vs SMU?

Volume:
$761,460

SMU wins by over 9.5 points

 - Kalshi

SMU wins by over 9.5 points - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 17, 2026

Closed: Oct 17, 3:20 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

SMU wins by over 9.5 points

View
100%
50%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$215,236
N/A
N/A
$165,421
Settled
Yes
kalshi

SMU wins by over 6.5 points

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$51,698
N/A
N/A
$31,110
Settled
Yes
kalshi

SMU wins by over 7.5 points

View
100%
46%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$47,945
N/A
N/A
$33,606
Settled
Yes
kalshi

SMU wins by over 4.5 points

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$37,095
N/A
N/A
$27,862
Settled
Yes
kalshi

SMU wins by over 3.5 points

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$24,980
N/A
N/A
$16,853
Settled
Yes
kalshi

SMU wins by over 5.5 points

View
100%
37%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$20,925
N/A
N/A
$16,370
Settled
Yes
kalshi

SMU wins by over 2.5 points

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,767
N/A
N/A
$6,651
Settled
Yes
kalshi

SMU wins by over 1.5 points

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,276
N/A
N/A
$4,056
Settled
Yes
kalshi

SMU wins by over 10.5 points

View
0%
45%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$104,138
N/A
N/A
$80,832
Settled
No
kalshi

Virginia wins by over 1.5 points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$38,886
N/A
N/A
$37,918
Settled
No
kalshi

Virginia wins by over 4.5 points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$31,092
N/A
N/A
$30,776
Settled
No
kalshi

Virginia wins by over 10.5 points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$29,040
N/A
N/A
$28,800
Settled
No
kalshi

Virginia wins by over 7.5 points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$28,816
N/A
N/A
$28,089
Settled
No
kalshi

Virginia wins by over 13.5 points

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$27,964
N/A
N/A
$27,033
Settled
No
kalshi

SMU wins by over 11.5 points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,062
N/A
N/A
$12,367
Settled
No
kalshi

Virginia wins by over 2.5 points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,709
N/A
N/A
$13,503
Settled
No
kalshi

SMU wins by over 13.5 points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,972
N/A
N/A
$5,628
Settled
No
kalshi

Virginia wins by over 14.5 points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,963
N/A
N/A
$8,823
Settled
No
kalshi

SMU wins by over 23.5 points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,809
N/A
N/A
$8,764
Settled
No
kalshi

SMU wins by over 14.5 points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,142
N/A
N/A
$5,848
Settled
No
kalshi

SMU wins by over 16.5 points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,000
N/A
N/A
$4,528
Settled
No
kalshi

Virginia wins by over 5.5 points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,009
N/A
N/A
$2,962
Settled
No
kalshi

Virginia wins by over 3.5 points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,340
N/A
N/A
$1,936
Settled
No
kalshi

SMU wins by over 17.5 points

View
0%
28%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,179
N/A
N/A
$1,626
Settled
No
kalshi

Virginia wins by over 6.5 points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,155
N/A
N/A
$2,082
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 31

Description

Speculative markets track the potential margin of victory in an upcoming college football game, allowing participants to wager on whether a team will win by a specific point differential. These markets reflect expectations about team performance and competitive balance.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the official final point differential from the Virginia vs SMU college football game scheduled for October 17, 2026. Each market has a specific threshold: if SMU wins by exceeding the listed point margin, that "SMU wins by over X points" market resolves to Yes; if Virginia wins by exceeding its listed margin, that corresponding market resolves to Yes. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of the original start time, all markets remain active and resolve per the final result. If the game fails to start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Virginia-SMU spread market tracks the current implied probability of various point spreads, the trading volume over time, and the price history of contracts representing different outcomes. You can see the 24-hour volume, which currently stands at $676,549, and the total volume traded to date, which is $761,460. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and identify potential opportunities. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how participants are assessing the likelihood of Virginia covering the spread against SMU.

Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading on their own information and beliefs. While there can be alignment, prediction markets often incorporate information faster and may offer a more accurate forecast, especially as the event approaches. Discrepancies can arise due to differing risk assessments and the incentive structures of each venue.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the Virginia-SMU game. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of the probability of that spread occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly. Essentially, the market determines the odds based on supply and demand for these contracts, creating a dynamic and real-time representation of expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread will be determined by the official result of the Virginia versus SMU football game. The market will settle based on whether Virginia covers the spread, fails to cover, or the spread is a push, as officially reported by a trusted sports data source. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout.

Several factors could influence the Virginia-SMU spread market. News regarding key player injuries on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also impact the spread. Unexpected coaching announcements or significant shifts in team performance during other games could also play a role. Additionally, large volume trades on Kalshi itself, indicating strong conviction from informed traders, could drive price changes in this market.