TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 9:31 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Hugo Grenier and Bruno Pujol Navarro in the Villena, Spain, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 6:10AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Hugo Grenier' if Hugo Grenier advances against Bruno Pujol Navarro. This market will resolve to 'Bruno Pujol Navarro' if Bruno Pujol Navarro advances against Hugo Grenier. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Hugo Grenier and Bruno Pujol Navarro in the Villena, Spain, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 6:10AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Hugo Grenier' if Hugo Grenier advances against Bruno Pujol Navarro. This market will resolve to 'Bruno Pujol Navarro' if Bruno Pujol Navarro advances against Hugo Grenier. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market relies on individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before a significant amount of trading occurs. These differences can arise from varying levels of information, differing interpretations of data, or simply the influence of public opinion on the prediction market.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will fluctuate, reflecting the evolving consensus. The current probability of a particular outcome is determined by the ratio of shares traded for each possibility.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Villena tennis match between Hugo Grenier and Bruno Pujol Navarro. This includes verification of the match completion and the confirmed winner. The platform will rely on widely accepted sources to determine the final result and settle the market accordingly.
Several factors could influence the trading activity and price movement in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or updates on their recent performance could significantly impact the perceived probabilities. Unexpected upsets in other matches involving these players might also shift market sentiment. Furthermore, large trading volumes from informed participants could signal new information or a change in expectations, leading to price adjustments in this market before the Oct 11, 2026 resolution.