TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 6:08 PM EST
Polymarket
This prediction market asks users to forecast which team, Villarreal CF or SSC Napoli, will win the second half of a UEFA Champions League match, or if the second half will end in a draw. The markets focus solely on goals scored during the second half of regular play, including stoppage time.
In the upcoming UEFA Champions League game between Villarreal CF and SSC Napoli, scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Villarreal CF" if Villarreal CF score more goals than SSC Napoli in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if Villarreal CF and SSC Napoli score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "SSC Napoli" if SSC Napoli score more goals than Villarreal CF in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
In the upcoming UEFA Champions League game between Villarreal CF and SSC Napoli, scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Villarreal CF" if Villarreal CF score more goals than SSC Napoli in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if Villarreal CF and SSC Napoli score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "SSC Napoli" if SSC Napoli score more goals than Villarreal CF in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Predict, often reflect a more accurate forecast than traditional sportsbook odds. This is because prediction markets incentivize participants to reveal their true beliefs, leading to a 'wisdom of the crowd' effect. Sportsbooks may be influenced by factors like house bias or public perception, while prediction markets are driven by informed traders willing to put their capital at risk. However, sportsbook odds can sometimes offer value, especially if they diverge significantly from the prediction market prices for this market. It’s beneficial to compare both to identify potential arbitrage opportunities or discrepancies in perceived probabilities.
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Polymarket and Predict for the Villarreal vs Napoli second half can arise due to several factors. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying levels of expertise and information. Trading volume also plays a role; lower volume on one platform can lead to greater price volatility and divergence. Furthermore, the specific market design and available trading features on each platform can influence price discovery. For example, Polymarket currently favors Villarreal CF to win the second half at 44%, while Predict leans toward a draw. These differences highlight the independent price-setting mechanisms at play on each venue.