TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Guimaraes wins by more than 1.5 goals
- Kalshi
Guimaraes wins by more than 1.5 goals - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 2, 2026
Time left: 02h:43m:43s
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This event tracks the outcome of an upcoming soccer match between Vicente Barcelos and Guimaraes, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals separate the winning team from the losing team at the end of regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different goal-differential thresholds for determining a winning outcome in the Vicente Barcelos vs Guimaraes professional Liga Portugal soccer match scheduled for November 2, 2026. Resolution occurs strictly after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty phases. Four distinct criteria define resolution: Vicente Barcelos must win by more than 2.5 goals, Vicente Barcelos must win by more than 1.5 goals, Guimaraes must win by more than 1.5 goals, or Guimaraes must win by more than 2.5 goals. The market resolves to 'Yes' for the specific rule that is met; if multiple rules could technically apply, the most specific (largest differential requirement) takes precedence. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of informed traders, which can differ from sportsbook odds that are initially set by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like public betting percentages and marketing considerations, while this market relies on individuals directly expressing their beliefs about the outcome. Often, prediction markets are more accurate than traditional polls or analysts' predictions, as traders have a financial incentive to be correct. It’s common to see the odds on Kalshi shift as new information becomes available, potentially diverging from initial sportsbook lines.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer the event gets, the more volatile the prices may become as new information emerges and traders refine their predictions about the Barcelos vs Guimaraes match.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread of the Barcelos vs Guimaraes match, as determined by official sports data sources. Traders will be able to see the final result reflected in their contract positions after the event concludes. The platform will verify the outcome against these sources to ensure accuracy and fairness for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, or tactical changes could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions or referee announcements might also play a role. Major upsets in other related matches could also affect perceptions of team strength. Furthermore, significant trading volume from informed participants could indicate new information or a change in outlook, causing the odds to adjust rapidly in this market. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding potential price movements.