TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 2, 5:17 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an upcoming professional soccer match in the Liga Portugal, focusing on determining whether one of the competing teams wins within regular time or if the game ends in a tie. The resolution depends solely on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. Market participants assess the likelihood of each possible result based on team performance and other relevant factors.
The event covers three possible outcomes of the Vicente Barcelos vs Guimaraes professional Liga Portugal soccer match scheduled for November 2, 2026: a win for Vicente Barcelos, a win for Guimaraes, or a tie, all determined after 90 minutes plus stoppage time and not including extra time or penalties. Each market resolves to Yes if its corresponding outcome occurs. If the match ends in a tie, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes, while the team-specific markets resolve to No. Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price following the platform's guidelines. The event explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Often, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance their risk and incorporate a profit margin, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to make accurate predictions. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply varying interpretations of the teams' strengths. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of the likelihood of each result. The current price indicates what traders believe is a fair value for each possible outcome.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Barcelos vs Guimaraes match, as reported by recognized sports authorities. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive a payout based on the final contract price at resolution. It's important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches to understand the factors that could influence the final result.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or tactical adjustments announced by the coaches could shift expectations. Unexpected weather conditions on match day could also play a role, potentially favoring one team over the other. Furthermore, performance in preceding matches and any public statements from key players or analysts could influence trader sentiment and cause the odds to fluctuate. Keep an eye on these developments to anticipate potential market movements.