TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 9:12 PM EST
Kalshi
Two soccer teams compete in a match where the outcome depends on the margin of victory. The first market focuses on whether Venados achieves a decisive win by more than 2.5 goals, reflecting a strong performance.
All markets resolve based on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the specified team wins by the exact margin stated in each rule—either Venados or Alacranes must achieve victories by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. It’s common to see differences emerge, especially as new information surfaces or public sentiment shifts. Comparing this market to sportsbook odds can be a useful exercise for informed decision-making, but remember that each represents a distinct form of forecasting.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Venados vs Alacranes spread. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the probability that traders assign to each outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will converge towards what the market believes is the true probability. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on collective intelligence.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Venados vs Alacranes game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the match, as reported by a recognized sports data source. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the contract price at resolution. It is important to note that the final result is what determines the outcome of this market, not any pre-game predictions or analysis.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 25, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Venados or Alacranes could significantly shift expectations. Changes in team form, coaching decisions, or even weather conditions could also play a role. Unexpected announcements about player availability or strategic changes could also cause the market to react. Monitoring these signals and assessing their potential impact is crucial for traders looking to capitalize on market movements.