TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 7:32 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Vasco da Gama and Corinthians, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result is determined based on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. Bets are settled according to specific goal-difference thresholds for each team.
The event resolves based on the outcome of the Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians professional Brasileiro Serie A soccer match scheduled for October 24, 2026. The final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (excluding extra time and penalties) determines resolution. Four distinct outcome thresholds are evaluated: Vasco da Gama winning by more than 2.5 goals, Vasco da Gama winning by more than 1.5 goals, Corinthians winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Corinthians winning by more than 2.5 goals. Any market that meets its respective goal-difference condition resolves to 'Yes,' while all others resolve to 'No.' The operator explicitly disclaims official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction markets like Kalshi often reflect information beyond what is captured in traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and incorporate a profit margin, while this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd. If a significant discrepancy exists between the prediction market price and sportsbook odds, it could indicate differing opinions on the likelihood of certain outcomes or access to unique information. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities of an event occurring, and can be influenced by public sentiment.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the spread in the Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand; more buyers drive the price up, indicating increased confidence in that outcome, while more sellers push the price down. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently incorporate new information and adjust predictions in real-time.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final spread in the Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the relevant sporting authorities. The platform will then determine the winning contracts based on the actual spread achieved during the game, and payouts will be processed accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand the market’s resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 25, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Vasco da Gama or Corinthians would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also impact predictions. Unexpected announcements about coaching changes or internal team issues could also shift the market. Finally, large trading volume from informed participants could signal new information or a change in sentiment, potentially moving the market price.