TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 10:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting the outcome of a specific segment of a college football game between Vanderbilt and Kentucky. It centers exclusively on performance during the third quarter, ignoring overall game results or other quarters' scores.
The event determines whether Vanderbilt or Kentucky achieves a specified point differential victory during the third quarter of their college football game scheduled for October 24, 2026. Ten separate outcome thresholds exist, ranging from over 2.5 to over 10.5 points for each team. Resolution hinges solely on points scored within the third quarter; results from other quarters are irrelevant. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original start time, markets remain active and resolve based on the official third-quarter result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants. The operator disclaims any formal association with the NCAA, and all team-related trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and to balance betting action, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook lines, it may indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome. It’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, but are derived through different mechanisms and can fluctuate independently.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the third quarter. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders buy contracts representing a specific spread, the price increases, reflecting a higher perceived likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective assessment of all participants on Kalshi regarding the likely outcome of the Vanderbilt vs Kentucky third quarter spread, and is constantly updated based on supply and demand for these contracts.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread of the third quarter of the Vanderbilt vs Kentucky game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Contracts predicting the actual spread will settle at 100, while those predicting a different spread will settle at 0. The official result will be sourced from established sports data providers to ensure accuracy and transparency.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 25, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Vanderbilt or Kentucky teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team strategy or unexpected starting lineup announcements could also shift the perceived probabilities. Furthermore, even general public sentiment, as reflected in social media or expert analysis, can influence trading activity and therefore the price of contracts in this market. Real-time game performance during the first and second quarters could also cause traders to adjust their positions.