TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 5:38 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional MLS soccer match between Vancouver and Seattle, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It considers different thresholds for goal differentials to determine the result. The resolution depends solely on the final score after regular time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks.
The event resolves based on the goal differential between Vancouver and Seattle in their MLS match scheduled for November 1, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Four distinct outcomes are evaluated: Vancouver winning by more than 2.5 goals, Vancouver winning by more than 1.5 goals, Seattle winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Seattle winning by more than 2.5 goals. Whichever condition is met first determines the market resolution. Extra time and penalty kicks are explicitly excluded from consideration. The event operates independently of any official league affiliations, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often converging towards probabilities that are more accurate than those initially set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action on both sides, while this market allows traders to freely express their beliefs. However, differences can emerge due to varying levels of information and analytical approaches. It’s common to see prediction markets react more quickly to new information, such as player injuries or weather forecasts, potentially leading to odds that diverge from traditional sportsbooks. Examining these differences can be insightful for informed betting.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the Vancouver vs Seattle game. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. Traders are essentially betting on the outcome, and their collective actions set the market price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates what the market believes is the most likely spread, but it’s constantly fluctuating based on new information and trader sentiment. The more a particular spread is bought, the higher its price becomes, and vice versa.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread will be determined by the official result of the Vancouver vs Seattle game. The market will settle based on whether the actual point difference falls within the range defined by the purchased contracts. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome for all participants. Traders will then be paid out or have their contracts settled based on whether their prediction aligned with the final result.
Several factors could influence the Vancouver vs Seattle spread between now and Nov 2, 2026. Key player injuries on either team would undoubtedly impact the market, shifting expectations about the likely outcome. Significant changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team's playing style, could also cause movement. Unexpected news regarding team morale or coaching strategies could also play a role. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi from informed traders could signal shifts in sentiment and cause the market to react accordingly, reflecting new information or analysis.