TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 8:33 PM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses different scoring margins in an upcoming NHL game between Vancouver and New York R. It focuses on whether specific teams win by a margin exceeding various goal differentials. The outcomes depend on the final score of the game as recorded by official NHL sources.
The event consists of four distinct outcome markets, each evaluating whether a team wins the Vancouver vs New York R NHL game—originally scheduled for October 11, 2026—by a margin exceeding specified goal differentials. The first market resolves to Yes if New York R wins by more than 2.5 goals. The second requires New York R to win by more than 1.5 goals. The third and fourth markets resolve to Yes if Vancouver wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals, respectively. All markets share a common secondary rule: if the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of its original time, they remain open and resolve based on the final result. If the game is cancelled or does not start within this window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of timing changes or cancellations.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which may be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks set lines to balance betting action, while this market allows participants to freely express their beliefs about the likely outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. Examining these differences can provide insights into where the crowd believes the value lies compared to professional oddsmakers.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the spread. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective expectations of participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades depend on correctly anticipating the final spread. The current price represents the probability that the spread will fall within a certain range, as determined by the collective actions of all traders.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the actual point difference between Vancouver and New York at the conclusion of the game. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and will be publicly available to verify. Traders will then be paid out or have their positions adjusted based on whether their predictions aligned with the final, verified result.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or even weather conditions could shift expectations and impact trading activity. Unexpected performance in preceding games, or significant media coverage focusing on team strengths and weaknesses, could also contribute to price movements. Major announcements about coaching decisions or team dynamics are other signals that traders will likely react to, adjusting their positions based on the perceived impact on the game's outcome.