TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 7:10 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether the total number of rounds played on Map 3 in the 100 Thieves versus G2 Esports Valorant match will be over or under 22.5. Currently, Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to the “Over 22.5” outcome. Resolution will be based on data from vlr.gg. Keep a close watch on the start of the VCT Champions Playoffs Upper Bracket Quarterfinal 1 match itself, scheduled for October 8, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET, as the number of rounds played on Map 3 will determine the outcome of this market.
This market refers to the Valorant Upper Bracket Quarterfinal 1 match between 100 Thieves and G2 Esports in the VCT Champions Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 8, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "100 Thieves" if 100 Thieves win the match against G2 Esports. This market will resolve to "G2 Esports" if G2 Esports win the match against 100 Thieves. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 22, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 8, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on expert analysis and incorporate a margin for profit, while this market allows traders to express their own beliefs about the outcome. If a significant discrepancy emerges between this market and sportsbook odds, it may indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook has mispriced the event. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities based on different methodologies and information sources.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the probability of a particular outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and express their views, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the event's likelihood. The current price reflects the aggregated predictions of all traders on Polymarket regarding the winner of the 100 Thieves vs. G2 Esports match.
This market resolves around Oct 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Valorant Champions Playoffs BO3 match between 100 Thieves and G2 Esports. The winning team, as declared by the tournament organizers, will determine the outcome of this market. Any potential disputes or challenges to the official result will be addressed according to Polymarket’s standard resolution procedures.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the match concludes. News regarding player form, team strategies, or any unforeseen roster changes for either 100 Thieves or G2 Esports could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about map picks or bans during the tournament could also impact the odds. Furthermore, any major upsets in other matches within the Valorant Champions Playoffs might influence perceptions of team strength and overall competitive landscape, leading to adjustments in this market.