TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 1:13 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Vallecano will win their professional La Liga soccer game against Celta Vigo. Currently, Kalshi gives Vallecano a 68.0% probability of winning, while a tie is priced at 23.0%. The market resolves based on the result of the match as reported by official sources, specifically if Vallecano wins the game originally scheduled for Oct 31, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Keep a close eye on the kickoff of the match on October 31, 2026, as that marks the beginning of the event window for resolution.
The event resolves based on the result of the Vallecano vs Celta Vigo professional La Liga soccer match originally scheduled for October 31, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Three distinct markets correspond to the possible outcomes: Vallecano win, Celta Vigo win, or a tie. If the match ends in a tie after regulation time, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the event rules. The governing body is the La Liga, and Kalshi is not affiliated with or connected to the league in any official capacity. All trademarks, logos, and brand names remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public sentiment diverges from expert opinion. It’s common to see prediction markets react more quickly to new information, as traders can instantly adjust their positions, whereas sportsbook odds are typically updated less frequently. Examining both can provide a more comprehensive view.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Vallecano vs Celta Vigo match. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The market depth, displayed on the dashboard, indicates the volume of contracts available at various price points, providing insight into the strength of conviction behind different predictions. Essentially, the price is determined by supply and demand.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Vallecano vs Celta Vigo match, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the winning contract. Traders holding the contract associated with the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment. The process is designed to be transparent and objective.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 31, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, team formations, or changes in coaching staff could significantly impact trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions on match day could also play a role, potentially affecting the style of play and overall outcome. Furthermore, public perception and media coverage leading up to the game can influence trading activity. Even seemingly minor events, like a key player’s pre-match comments, could trigger shifts in the market as traders adjust their expectations for the Vallecano vs Celta Vigo match.