TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 2:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Valencia and Villarreal, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result is determined solely by the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different winning margins in the Valencia versus Villarreal La Liga match scheduled for October 24, 2026. Four distinct outcomes are considered: Valencia winning by more than 2.5 goals, Valencia winning by more than 1.5 goals, Villarreal winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Villarreal winning by more than 2.5 goals. All resolutions are based exclusively on the score after the regulation 90 minutes plus any added stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty kicks. Each market will resolve to 'Yes' only if the specified team achieves the exact margin of victory outlined in its respective rule. The event operates independently of official league affiliations, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Often, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to be accurate. If a significant discrepancy exists between the two, it might indicate that the market believes the sportsbook has mispriced the probability of a particular outcome. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information than sportsbooks, especially regarding team news or injuries.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the spread in the Valencia vs Villarreal match. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, driven by traders’ assessments of the likely outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer the price is to 50, the more uncertain the market is about the spread. Traders aim to profit by correctly predicting the outcome and capitalizing on price discrepancies.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final spread of the Valencia vs Villarreal match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by sporting authorities. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the final price of the contracts at resolution. The market will close prior to the event’s completion to prevent manipulation.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Valencia or Villarreal would likely cause price movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about starting lineups or coaching decisions could also lead to shifts in the market price. Major upsets in other relevant matches could indirectly affect perceptions of team strength and impact trading activity in this market.