TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 4:55 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether the Valencia versus Bilbao La Liga soccer game will end in a tie. Currently, Kalshi gives a probability of 82.0% to a drawn result, with Bilbao winning at 9.0%. The market resolves based on the outcome of the match after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as determined by official sources. Keep an eye on the kickoff of the Valencia versus Bilbao match on October 17, 2026, as that marks the beginning of the event window for resolution.
The event resolves based on the result of the Valencia vs Bilbao professional La Liga soccer match scheduled for October 17, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Three possible outcomes are considered: Valencia win, Bilbao win, or a tie. If the match ends in a tie after regulation time, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, the markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform rules. The event specifically excludes extra time and penalty shootout results from consideration in resolving the markets.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. This can lead to prediction market odds being more accurate, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. However, sportsbooks may adjust their odds more quickly in response to breaking news, while this market’s price discovery is driven by continuous trading activity. It’s worth comparing both to form your own informed opinion.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay for exposure to a particular result in the Valencia vs Bilbao match. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its predictions.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Valencia vs Bilbao match, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The platform will verify the final score and determine which outcome corresponds to the actual result. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will forfeit their investment. The exact payout amount will depend on the final price of the contract at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 17, 2026. News regarding player injuries or suspensions for either Valencia or Bilbao would likely have a significant impact. Any changes in team form, such as unexpected wins or losses in preceding matches, could also shift trader sentiment. Even broader factors like weather conditions on match day or tactical announcements from the managers could move the market. Unexpected news or events related to the teams or key players are the most likely catalysts for price movement in this market.