TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 21, 8:06 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between V-Varen and Hiroshima, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals separate the winning team from the losing team at the end of regular time.
The event resolves based on the goal differential between V-Varen and Hiroshima in their Japan J1 League match scheduled for October 21, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if V-Varen wins by more than 2.5 goals, V-Varen wins by more than 1.5 goals, Hiroshima wins by more than 1.5 goals, or Hiroshima wins by more than 2.5 goals. The event exclusively considers regular-time results, with no affiliation to the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of informed traders, and can sometimes diverge from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks typically set their lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates a wider range of information and perspectives from individuals actively trading on the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing opinions on factors such as team morale, player injuries, or even weather conditions. It’s common to see prediction markets react more quickly to new information than sportsbooks, potentially offering a more up-to-date assessment of probabilities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the latest information and collective intelligence of all participants. The spread is determined by the difference in prices between the two possible outcomes.
This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread of the V-Varen vs Hiroshima match as reported by official sources. The platform will verify the result against established sports data providers to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 21, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries, changes in team lineups, or unexpected coaching decisions could shift the probabilities. Weather conditions on match day are also a potential catalyst, as they can affect playing style and overall performance. Furthermore, significant shifts in public sentiment, perhaps driven by expert analysis or media coverage, could influence trading activity and move the market. Unexpected results in other matches involving these teams could also impact trader confidence and lead to price fluctuations.