TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 9:14 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on determining which team will score more points in a specific quarter of a college football game between Utah State and Texas State. It highlights the competitive dynamics of the game by zooming in on a single quarter's performance rather than the overall result.
The market resolves based on which team scores the most points during the second quarter of the Utah State vs Texas State college football game scheduled for October 24, 2026. If Texas State scores more points in that quarter, the 'Texas St.' outcome resolves to Yes. If Utah State scores more points, the 'Utah St.' outcome resolves to Yes. If both teams score an equal number of points, the 'Tie' outcome resolves to Yes. For postponements, if the game commences within 48 hours of the original start time, the market remains active and resolves according to the actual second-quarter result. If the game does not start within this 48-hour window, the market resolves to a fair price. Only points scored during the second quarter count toward the resolution, and Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the NCAA.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of informed traders, and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profit, while this market is driven purely by participants’ beliefs about the probability of each outcome. If a significant number of traders believe a team is more likely to win than sportsbooks suggest, the odds on Kalshi will shift accordingly. It's common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment changes. These differences can present opportunities for arbitrage.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome – in this case, Utah St. winning the 2nd quarter or Texas St. winning the 2nd quarter. The price of each contract reflects the market’s implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The closer we get to the event, the more the prices will likely converge towards the true probability of each team winning.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The team leading at the end of the second quarter of the Utah St. vs Texas St. game will be declared the winner of this market. The official game results, as reported by a trusted sports data source, will be used to determine the winning outcome. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on publicly available information, ensuring a fair and accurate settlement.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Utah St. or Texas St. would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team strategy or unexpected lineup adjustments could also shift trader sentiment. Furthermore, general news related to team performance or coaching decisions could affect the odds. Even public perception, driven by social media or expert analysis, can contribute to price fluctuations on Kalshi as traders react to new information.