TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$185,665,189
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,833,875,329
407,365
Markets across
40,470
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,365
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 9:12 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the second quarter of a college football game between Utah State and Boise State. Each market corresponds to a specific margin of victory, allowing participants to bet on how decisively one team might lead at that specific point in the game.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the second quarter of play in the Utah State vs. Boise State college football game scheduled for October 3, 2026. If Boise State wins the second quarter by the exact margin specified in a market's title, that market resolves as 'No'; if they win by more than that margin, it resolves as 'Yes'. Separate markets exist for Boise State winning by margins ranging from over 2.5 to over 23.5 points, and for Utah State winning by margins from over 2.5 to over 10.5 points. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of its original start time, all markets remain active and resolve based on the official second-quarter result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and often incorporate a margin for profit, while this market is driven by individuals trading on their own information and analysis. It’s common to see discrepancies emerge as new information becomes available or as public sentiment shifts. Comparing this market to sportsbook lines can offer a broader perspective on the likely outcome of the game and potentially identify value in either market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the 2nd quarter spread. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the implied probability of the event occurring. As more traders buy contracts, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective assessment of all participants trading on Kalshi, making it a dynamic and responsive indicator of expectations for the game's outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final 2nd quarter spread is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the game, as reported by official sources. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their contracts align with the actual spread. It’s important to monitor the game closely as it progresses, as the outcome will determine the payout for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Utah State or Boise State teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team's playing style, could also shift expectations. Additionally, any late-breaking information about team strategies or coaching decisions could move the market. Public sentiment and betting activity on sportsbooks could also indirectly influence trading on Kalshi.