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Closed: Oct 24, 10:50 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on determining which team will score more points in the final quarter of a college football game between USC and Wisconsin. It provides a way to speculate on the momentum and performance of each team specifically in the last quarter of play, excluding any overtime periods.
If Wisconsin wins the 4th quarter (excluding overtime) of the USC vs Wisconsin college football game originally scheduled for Oct 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If USC wins the 4th quarter (excluding overtime) of the USC vs Wisconsin college football game originally scheduled for Oct 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If neither team wins the 4th quarter (excluding overtime) of the USC vs Wisconsin college football game originally scheduled for Oct 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market is driven purely by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously betting on both platforms. However, it’s important to remember that prediction markets often incorporate information and analysis beyond what is publicly available to sportsbooks, potentially leading to more accurate predictions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers set the price by placing bids and asks. The current price represents the probability of a particular outcome occurring, scaled to a value between 0 and 100. As more traders participate, the price fluctuates to reflect the collective assessment of the event's likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are influenced by news, analysis, and any information that traders believe impacts the potential result of the USC vs Wisconsin game's fourth quarter.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will settle based on which team – USC or Wisconsin – has the higher score at the conclusion of the fourth quarter. The official game results, as reported by a trusted sports data provider, will be used to determine the winning outcome. Traders will be able to see the final result reflected in their account balances shortly after the game concludes.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries for either USC or Wisconsin would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team strategy or unexpected performance in earlier parts of the game could also shift trader sentiment. Furthermore, late-breaking news about weather conditions or other external factors impacting the game could also play a role. As the game progresses, real-time scoring updates and in-game statistics will be the most influential drivers of price changes.