TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 8:13 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the total points scored by both teams in the first quarter of an upcoming college football game. Each market has a different threshold for the total points needed to settle as 'Yes'. The outcomes depend solely on the official scoring during that specific quarter.
All markets resolve based on the combined points scored by both teams in the first quarter of the USC vs Wisconsin college football game scheduled for October 24, 2026. Each market has a specific numerical threshold; if the total points exceed that threshold, the market resolves to 'Yes,' otherwise to 'No.' Only points scored during the first quarter count. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the markets remain open and resolve based on the final result. If the game does not start within 48 hours, all markets resolve to a fair price. Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities, especially as more information becomes available. Discrepancies can arise due to differing risk assessments and the incentive structures of each venue.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where buyers and sellers set the price of contracts representing different possible outcomes for the USC vs Wisconsin 1st quarter total. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on their expectations, creating a dynamic price that reflects the collective forecast. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring, and the market aggregates these individual assessments into an overall prediction.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final total points scored in the first quarter of the USC vs Wisconsin game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The official game statistics will serve as the basis for verifying the result. Traders will be able to claim their winnings once the resolution is finalized on Kalshi.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to game time. Any news regarding key player injuries for either USC or Wisconsin would likely have a significant impact. Changes in the weather forecast, particularly if it's expected to be rainy or windy, could also shift expectations about scoring. Additionally, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could cause traders to reassess their probabilities and adjust their positions in this market.