TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 10:59 PM EST
Kalshi
The outcome depends on the total receiving yards achieved by either team in a specific college football game. Thresholds vary for each team, with higher thresholds offering different resolution criteria. The contest resolution hinges solely on the official game statistics, regardless of any post-game adjustments or disputes.
All markets resolve based on the official total receiving yards accumulated by either Penn State or USC in the college football game scheduled for October 10, 2026. Receiving yards from both regular time and the first or second overtime periods count toward the total, but successful two-point conversions—including those in overtime—do not contribute. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all open markets will resolve according to the final official result. Should the game fail to start within the 48-hour window, all markets will instead resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific threshold being evaluated.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially as an event approaches. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the insights of many individual traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or risk appetites. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines as new information becomes available or as public sentiment shifts regarding the USC vs Penn State matchup. Examining both can offer a more comprehensive view.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different receiving yard totals, and the price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the event's likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by supply and demand; if many traders believe a particular yardage total is likely, they will buy contracts at higher prices, increasing the cost to bet on that outcome. Conversely, if traders believe an outcome is unlikely, they will sell contracts, lowering the price.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final receiving yard totals for both USC and Penn State are verifiable from credible public reporting following the conclusion of their game. The official statistics released by the NCAA will be used to determine the winning contracts. Traders will be able to see the final results reflected in their account balances shortly after the official data is available. This market aims to predict the total combined receiving yards for both teams in the specified game.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either USC or Penn State – particularly wide receivers or quarterbacks – would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, especially those predicting adverse conditions that could limit passing offenses, could also impact trading activity. Additionally, any late-breaking news about coaching strategies or defensive adjustments could shift trader sentiment. Public perception, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, can also contribute to price fluctuations in this market.