TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 8:23 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks how many touchdowns each team scores through passes during their matchup. It focuses specifically on offensive performance via the passing game, ignoring other scoring methods like rushing or defensive scores.
All markets resolve based on the total number of receiving touchdowns scored by each team during the USC vs Penn St. college football game scheduled for Oct 10, 2026, including any overtime periods. A receiving touchdown is defined as a touchdown scored by an offensive player who catches a forward pass from their team's quarterback. Touchdowns scored by another player after recovering a fumble by the intended receiver do not count, unless the receiver recovers their own fumble and scores. Successful two-point conversions, regardless of when they occur, are excluded from all counts. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of its original time, all markets remain open and resolve based on the final official result. If the game does not start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price. Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market's prices are driven purely by individuals willing to buy or sell based on their own analysis. If a significant discrepancy exists, it may indicate that the market believes a sportsbook has mispriced the probability of a particular outcome. It's common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information than sportsbooks, especially regarding impactful events like injuries.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit bids (the price they are willing to buy) and asks (the price they are willing to sell) for contracts representing different outcomes. The market price fluctuates based on the highest bid and lowest ask. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the price reflects the collective assessment of all participants, constantly adjusting as new information becomes available and traders update their beliefs about the likelihood of each outcome in the USC vs Penn State game.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the total number of touchdowns scored by both teams combined during the USC vs Penn State football game. Official game statistics will be used to determine the final result, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual number of touchdowns scored.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries on either the USC or Penn State teams would likely cause price movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if severe weather is predicted, could also influence the market, as weather impacts scoring. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic shifts announced before the game could also move prices. Finally, late-breaking news about team morale or internal issues could also be a catalyst for trading activity in this market.