TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 10:04 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the outcome of the third quarter in an upcoming college football game. Each market evaluates different point spreads to determine which team will have a decisive lead by the end of that quarter.
These markets resolve based on the point differential between Penn State and USC specifically during the third quarter of their college football game scheduled for October 10, 2026. For any market to resolve as 'Yes,' the specified team must win the third quarter by more than the stated point spread. If Penn State meets or exceeds the required margin of victory in the third quarter, the corresponding 'Penn St. wins by over X points' markets resolve to 'Yes,' while all 'USC wins by over X points' markets resolve to 'No.' Conversely, if USC achieves the required margin, the relevant 'USC wins by over X points' markets resolve to 'Yes,' and all Penn State markets resolve to 'No.' Should neither team meet their respective thresholds, all markets resolve to 'No.' Postponements are accounted for: if the game starts within 48 hours of the original time, markets remain active and resolve based on the actual third-quarter result. If the game does not start within this window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows traders to express their own beliefs about the likely outcome. Often, you’ll find that prediction markets are more accurate than traditional point spreads, especially as the event draws closer and more information becomes available. However, sportsbook odds are readily accessible and provide a useful benchmark for comparison.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to incorporate new information and opinions. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the cost to take one side of the bet, and the difference between the buy and sell prices represents the spread. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a fair and efficient market for predicting the outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official result of the third quarter spread in the USC vs Penn State football game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread will be determined by the official game statistics, and the contracts will pay out based on whether the actual spread falls within the range represented by the purchased contracts. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding key player injuries for either USC or Penn State would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest unfavorable playing conditions, could also shift the market. Furthermore, updates on team strategies or coaching decisions, as well as any significant shifts in public sentiment, could all contribute to movement in the price of contracts for the USC vs Penn State spread.