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410,833

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40,345

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USA vs Canada: Spread
kalshi
predict

What is the result of USA vs Canada?

Volume:
$348,690

O/U 0.5

 - Predict

O/U 0.5 - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 6, 2026

Closed: Oct 6, 10:07 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

O/U 0.5

View
99%
4%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$12,821
$3,956
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

United States (-5.5)

View
85%
Yes 85¢No 15¢
—
$146
$280
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Canada (-5.5)

View
85%
Yes 85¢No 15¢
—
$146
$55
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Canada (-4.5)

View
85%
Yes 85¢No 15¢
—
$146
$29
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

O/U 7.5

View
84%
Yes 84¢No 16¢
—
$146
$562
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

O/U 6.5

View
84%
81%
Yes 84¢No 16¢
—
$173
$525
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Canada (-3.5)

View
84%
Yes 84¢No 16¢
—
$147
$377
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

O/U 8.5

View
50%
48%
Yes 50¢No 50¢
—
$156
$2,566
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Both Teams to Score

View
5%
53%
Yes 5¢No 95¢
—
$128
$21,217
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

O/U 3.5

View
4%
Yes 4¢No 96¢
—
$158
$5,995
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

United States (-1.5)

View
18%
13%
Yes 18¢No 82¢
—
$129
$19,211
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

USA wins by more than 1.5 goals

View
0%
31%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$183,125
N/A
N/A
$123,218
Settled
No
predict

United States (-3.5)

View
1%
5%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$146
$244
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

O/U 2.5

View
1%
56%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$11,916
$21,879
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

O/U 1.5

View
1%
79%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$153
$19,537
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

O/U 4.5

View
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$154
$3,070
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

O/U 5.5

View
1%
7%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$173
$650
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

United States (-4.5)

View
1%
6%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$146
$346
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

United States (-2.5)

View
7%
7%
Yes 7¢No 93¢
—
$11,889
$4,543
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

USA wins by more than 2.5 goals

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$35,540
N/A
N/A
$28,499
Settled
No
predict

Canada (-1.5)

View
3%
5%
Yes 3¢No 97¢
—
$129
$506
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Canada wins by more than 1.5 goals

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,488
N/A
N/A
$13,275
Settled
No
predict

Canada (-2.5)

View
1%
2%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$11,889
$503
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Canada wins by more than 2.5 goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,487
N/A
N/A
$7,061
Settled
No
Total markets: 24

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the United States versus Canada FIFA International Friendly soccer match, specifically whether the United States will win by two or more goals. Currently, the consensus probability favors a United States victory by that margin at 99.0%. This aggregate view combines data from Kalshi and Predict, and will resolve based on the official final score published on fifa.com. The primary resolution source will be official statistics, with fallback options including Flashscore and Sofascore if necessary. Be sure to monitor the game scheduled for October 6, 2026, as the final result of that match will determine market settlement.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: A date discrepancy exists between the platforms, with Predict referencing the October 6, 2024 game and Kalshi referencing the October 6, 2026 game. This fundamentally changes the event being predicted.Hero tip: Double-check the event date before making any trades. The Kalshi markets are for a future event, while Predict's markets are for an event that has already occurred. Trading the wrong event will lead to incorrect resolution.

Critical divergence points:

  • Predict: Resolution will be based on the official final score published on fifa.com for the game scheduled on October 6, 2024, within 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If the game is canceled, the market resolves 50-50. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours, it resolves 50-50.
  • Kalshi: Resolution depends on whether the USA or Canada wins by more than 1.5, 2.5, etc. goals in the game originally scheduled for October 6, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No cancellation or data availability contingencies are explicitly stated.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Kalshi

These markets resolve based on whether USA wins the professional Intl Friendlies soccer game against Canada, originally scheduled for Oct 6, 2026, by more than specified goal margins (2.5 or 1.5 goals). A separate market also resolves if Canada wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals. The resolution occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Predict

More markets for the FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for October 6 at 8:07 PM ET.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found on this market, often reflect a broader range of opinions than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance their own risk, while prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd. This can lead to differences in the perceived probability of various outcomes. While sportsbooks may initially set lines based on expert analysis, this market continuously adjusts as more traders participate and share their insights. It's common to see discrepancies, particularly before a significant amount of volume accumulates.

Prices on Kalshi and Predict can diverge due to several factors. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and fee structures. Kalshi and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Furthermore, the volume traded on each platform can influence price discovery; a larger volume on one platform may lead to a more efficient and accurate price. Differences in how each platform handles margin requirements or allows order types can also contribute to price discrepancies. These variations are normal and provide opportunities for arbitrage among informed traders.

Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team, changes in coaching strategies, or significant shifts in public sentiment could all cause the market to move. Unexpected weather conditions or controversies surrounding the event could also play a role. As the event approaches, increased media coverage and betting activity will likely lead to greater price volatility. Monitoring these signals can help traders identify potential opportunities.