TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 12:07 AM EST
Predict
In the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game between United States and Mexico, scheduled for October 3, 2026 at 10:07 PM ET: This market will resolve to "United States" if United States score more goals than Mexico in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if United States and Mexico score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Mexico" if Mexico score more goals than United States in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
In the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game between United States and Mexico, scheduled for October 3, 2026 at 10:07 PM ET: This market will resolve to "United States" if United States score more goals than Mexico in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if United States and Mexico score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Mexico" if Mexico score more goals than United States in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the 'wisdom of the crowd' and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to build in a profit margin, while this market is driven purely by traders expressing their beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when public perception diverges from expert analysis. However, both aim to accurately forecast the probability of an event, and comparing them can offer valuable insights into potential value or mispricing. It's important to remember that this market is a distinct venue for forecasting.
On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of the participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people buy contracts predicting a particular result, the price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds constantly adjust to incorporate new information and changing sentiment. The current price reflects the probability that traders assign to each possible outcome in the US vs Mexico second half.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be based on the official result of the second half of the United States versus Mexico match. Verification will rely on official sources such as sports news outlets and the governing bodies of the competition. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their chosen outcome aligns with the verified result. The resolution process aims to be transparent and based on widely accepted data.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in player lineups, or tactical adjustments announced by either team could significantly shift the odds. Unexpected weather conditions or referee announcements could also play a role. Furthermore, real-time performance during the first half of the match, including goals scored or key plays, will likely have an immediate impact on trading activity and price movements. Public sentiment and media coverage surrounding the match can also contribute to shifts in this market.