TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$257,828,392
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,664,501
579,454
Markets across
14,299
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,106
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This event group contains a critical data integrity failure: Polymarket markets reference a UAE vs. Armenia match on March 26, 2026, while Kalshi markets reference an entirely different match (Qatar vs. Serbia on the same date). The three Polymarket markets form a coherent binary outcome set (UAE win, Armenia win, draw), but Kalshi's markets are for a completely different fixture and cannot be audited as part of the same event group.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Event mismatch: Polymarket covers UAE vs. Armenia while Kalshi covers Qatar vs. Serbia, both allegedly on March 26, 2026. This is a data integrity failure that makes unified resolution impossible.Hero Tip:
Treat these as two separate event groups immediately. Verify the actual match schedule for March 26, 2026 from FIFA and official federation sources. Do not attempt to cross-settle these markets. Resolve each platform's markets independently using their stated sources and rules.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Three binary markets on UAE vs. Armenia (draw, Armenia win, UAE win). Primary source: FIFA official statistics within 2 hours post-match. Scope: 90 minutes + stoppage time. Cancellation rule: draw market resolves Yes, win markets resolve No.Kalshi:
Three binary markets on Qatar vs. Serbia (Serbia win, Qatar win, tie). No primary source specified. Scope: 90 minutes + stoppage time only. No explicit cancellation rules provided.
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