TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 11:23 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional Bundesliga soccer match between Union Berlin and Elversberg. The market focuses on determining whether either team wins the match within regular time, or if the game ends in a tie. The result is based solely on the final score after 90 minutes plus any stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event resolves based on the result of the Union Berlin vs Elversberg professional Bundesliga soccer match originally scheduled for October 10, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If Union Berlin wins, the 'Union Berlin' market resolves to Yes. If Elversberg wins, the 'Elversberg' market resolves to Yes. If the match ends in a tie, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the governing rules. The resolution excludes outcomes from extra time or penalty shootouts, focusing only on the result within regular time and stoppage time.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, but may also incorporate a margin for profit. This market, driven by traders on Kalshi, allows individuals to express their own informed opinions, potentially leading to odds that more accurately reflect the true probability of an outcome. It's common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts, offering opportunities for arbitrage or value betting.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market's collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information arises, the prices adjust dynamically, creating a real-time forecast. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the price movements are solely determined by supply and demand within Kalshi, and aren't influenced by any external factors or other venues.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Union Berlin vs Elversberg match as reported by a recognized sports data provider. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive a payout based on the final contract price at resolution. It is important to monitor the event closely as Oct 10, 2026 approaches to understand any potential factors that could influence the final result.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 10, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries or suspensions for either Union Berlin or Elversberg would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions on match day could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements related to team management or ownership could also move the market. Monitoring sports news and analysis related to both teams is crucial for understanding potential catalysts that could shift the odds in this market.