TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 11:29 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether the Union Berlin vs Dortmund professional Bundesliga soccer game will end in a tie. Currently, Kalshi gives a 92.0% probability to “Tie is the result”, with Dortmund winning at 6.0%. The market resolves based on the outcome of the game after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as determined by the official result of the Union Berlin vs Dortmund match. Keep an eye on the game itself, scheduled for October 17, 2026, as that date marks the end of the betting period and will determine the final outcome of this market.
The event resolves based on the result of the Union Berlin vs Dortmund professional Bundesliga soccer match scheduled for October 17, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. There are three possible outcomes: Union Berlin win, Dortmund win, or a tie. If the match ends in a tie after regular time, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, the markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform. The resolution excludes extra time and penalty shootouts, focusing only on the result at the end of standard playing time.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from initial sportsbook lines which can be influenced by factors like public perception or early betting action. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their risk and ensure profit, while this market represents the collective belief of traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Comparing the two can reveal insights into where the market disagrees with traditional oddsmakers, and potentially identify value in either venue.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders buy contracts for a particular result, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations as the event approaches, offering a real-time assessment of probabilities.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Union Berlin vs Dortmund match, as reported by a trusted sports data source. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final result. The platform will verify the outcome and distribute funds accordingly, ensuring a transparent and reliable resolution process.
Several factors could influence this market before Oct 17, 2026. Key player injuries or suspensions for either Union Berlin or Dortmund would likely cause significant shifts in the odds. Unexpected changes in team form, such as a surprising loss in a previous match, could also impact trader sentiment. Even news regarding weather conditions or tactical decisions announced by the managers could introduce volatility. Any significant development affecting the perceived probability of either team winning has the potential to move the market.