TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 2:57 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Ulsan HD and Pohang Steelers, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals separate the winning team from the losing team at the end of regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event consists of four distinct outcome markets that resolve based on the goal differential between Ulsan HD and Pohang Steelers in their Korea K League 1 match scheduled for October 24, 2026. Each market specifies a different threshold for the winning margin: Ulsan HD winning by more than 2.5 goals, Ulsan HD winning by more than 1.5 goals, Pohang Steelers winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Pohang Steelers winning by more than 2.5 goals. All markets resolve solely based on the final score after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty kicks. Each market independently evaluates whether the actual goal difference meets or exceeds its specified threshold, determining a 'Yes' or 'No' resolution. The markets operate independently, meaning the resolution of one does not affect the others. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds based on models and perceived biases, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook has mispriced the outcome, the odds on Kalshi will move accordingly. This can lead to prediction market prices being more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, particularly as the event approaches and more information is incorporated. It's a useful comparison point for anyone analyzing the potential result.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether Ulsan HD will win by more than the specified spread. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective prediction of the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer the price is to 100, the more the market believes Ulsan HD will cover the spread; closer to 0, the less likely. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result of the Ulsan HD versus Pohang Steelers match, specifically the goal difference, will determine whether Ulsan HD wins by more than the spread. The resolution will be based on official match data and verified against credible public sources. Traders holding contracts predicting a win for Ulsan HD will be paid out if the outcome matches their prediction, and vice versa.
Several factors could influence this market before Oct 24, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Ulsan HD or Pohang Steelers would likely cause movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also impact the perceived probability of Ulsan HD covering the spread. Unexpected announcements about coaching changes or internal team issues could also shift the market. Monitoring these signals and their potential impact on the match outcome is crucial for informed trading.