TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$245,601,049

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,985,204,718

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,897,405,322

408,349

Markets across

39,583

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,443

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Gabriel Lorenço (Heavyweight, Prelims)
polymarket
predict
limitless

What is the result of Petersen vs Lorenço?

Total volume:
$125
Volume 24h:
$115N/A
Liquidity:
$13,901
448%
Open interest:
$87N/A

Thomas Petersen vs. Gabriel Lorenço

all

3 markets

Polymarket

Limitless

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 8, 2026

Time left: 04d:21h:00m

UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Gabriel Lorenço (Heavyweight, Prelims)

59%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 59¢ buys you 169 shares | Odds: 59% Total Payout: $169 | Net Profit: $69 Multiplier: 1.69x | ROI: 69% APY not meaningful 4 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Thomas Petersen vs. Gabriel Lorenço

Trade
59%
1%
Yes 59¢No 42¢
1¢
$9,516
$125
1,180%
N/A
N/A
4d 21h
Active
limitless

UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Gabriel Lorenço (Heavyweight, Prelims)

Trade
N/A
N/A
6.5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 14h
Active
predict

Thomas Petersen vs. Gabriel Lorenço

Trade
N/A
N/A
6¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 16h
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
58.5%
Yes 59¢No 42¢
Avg: 4.5¢Max: 6.5¢
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

Trade
49%
1%
Yes 93¢No 96¢
89¢
$36
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 21h
Active
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

Trade
50%
Yes 96¢No 96¢
92¢
$42
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 21h
Active
polymarket

Petersen to win by KO/TKO?

Trade
51%
1%
Yes 97¢No 96¢
93¢
$33
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 21h
Active
polymarket

Lorenço to win by KO/TKO?

Trade
50%
Yes 96¢No 96¢
92¢
$42
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 21h
Active
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

Trade
50%
Yes 96¢No 96¢
92¢
$42
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 21h
Active
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

Trade
66%
Yes 92¢No 60¢
52¢
$187
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 21h
Active
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

Trade
62%
12%
Yes 63¢No 40¢
3¢
$3,778
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 21h
Active
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

Trade
40%
10%
Yes 72¢No 93¢
65¢
$185
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 21h
Active
polymarket

Fight won by decision?

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 21h
Active
polymarket

Ends before Round 2?

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 21h
Active
polymarket

Ends before Round 3?

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 21h
Active
polymarket

Petersen in Round 1

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 21h
Active
polymarket

Petersen in Round 2

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 21h
Active
polymarket

Petersen in Round 3

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 21h
Active
polymarket

Lorenço in Round 1

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 21h
Active
polymarket

Lorenço in Round 2

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 21h
Active
polymarket

Lorenço in Round 3

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 21h
Active
polymarket

Decision or Draw

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 21h
Active
Total markets: 21

Description

This event group covers the UFC Fight Night bout between Thomas Petersen and Gabriel Lorenço, scheduled for November 7, 2026. Markets include predicting the winner, method of victory, round-based outcomes, and whether the fight will go the distance.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms (limitless and polymarket) share identical resolution criteria, relying on official UFC results and a consistent '50-50' fallback for unresolved scenarios.Primary resolution logic: Official UFC information (e.g., UFC.com)

Core resolution logic:

  • The primary market resolves to the fighter officially declared the winner by the UFC.
  • Draws, Technical Draws, No Contests, cancellations, or postponements beyond November 21, 2026, resolve to '50-50'.
  • Round-based markets resolve based on whether the fight duration exceeds the specified threshold, with '50-50' for unresolved scenarios.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Fight Ends Exactly on Threshold: For Over/Under round markets, if the fight ends *exactly* at the threshold (e.g., 2:30 of Round 1 for Over 0.5 Rounds), the market resolves to '50-50'.
  • Stoppage Between Rounds: A stoppage between rounds counts as ending in the round that has just been completed. For example, a stoppage between Round 1 and Round 2 will resolve 'Yes' for 'Will the fight end before Round 2?'
  • Technical Decision: A technical decision resolves 'Yes' for 'Will the fight be won by decision?'
Timing: Resolution will occur after the official UFC result is published, but no later than November 21, 2026, unless the fight is postponed beyond that date, in which case it resolves '50-50'.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Thomas Petersen" if Thomas Petersen is officially declared the winner of the fight against Gabriel Lorenço at UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker, scheduled for November 7, 2026. It will resolve to "Gabriel Lorenço" if Gabriel Lorenço is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 21, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Thomas Petersen" if Thomas Petersen is officially declared the winner of the fight against Gabriel Lorenço at UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker, scheduled for November 7, 2026. It will resolve to "Gabriel Lorenço" if Gabriel Lorenço is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 21, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Limitless

This market will resolve to "Thomas Petersen" if Thomas Petersen is officially declared the winner of the fight against Gabriel Lorenço at UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker, scheduled for November 7, 2026. It will resolve to "Gabriel Lorenço" if Gabriel Lorenço is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 21, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Limitless, this dashboard tracks the consensus view on the outcome of the Petersen vs. Lorenço fight. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $125, with $115 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows you to see how traders are pricing the likelihood of different outcomes in this heavyweight prelim bout. The dashboard combines data from both venues to provide a comprehensive overview of market sentiment, offering a weighted average of probabilities based on trading activity. This provides a unique insight beyond traditional odds-making.

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Limitless, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the wisdom of the crowd and incentives for accurate predictions. Sportsbooks set lines based on internal models and aim to balance action on both sides, while prediction markets allow anyone to trade and express their beliefs. This market reflects real money at risk, incentivizing participants to be more accurate in their forecasts. As a result, prediction markets can sometimes offer more efficient and informative odds, especially when there's disagreement or incomplete information available to sportsbooks.

Polymarket and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Limitless may differ due to variations in user base, trading fees, and market-specific rules. Polymarket might attract a different demographic of traders with unique insights into the UFC, while Limitless could have different liquidity levels impacting price discovery. Furthermore, the way each platform handles order types and market creation can influence price movements. These factors contribute to independent price formations, even though both platforms are tracking the same underlying event—the Petersen vs. Lorenço fight—and offer opportunities for arbitrage.

This market resolves around Nov 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the UFC for the Petersen vs. Lorenço fight, specifically the winner of the bout. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome, reflecting the actual result of the heavyweight prelims matchup.

Several signals could influence this market before Nov 8, 2026. Any news regarding fighter injuries, changes in training regimens, or unexpected announcements about their physical condition would likely cause price fluctuations. Public sentiment, reflected in social media or expert analysis, could also impact trading activity. Additionally, the release of updated fight statistics or insights into each fighter’s recent performance could shift probabilities. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding how this market evolves leading up to the Petersen vs. Lorenço fight.