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UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Rodrigo Sezinando (Welterweight, Prelims)
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of Berggren vs Sezinando?

Volume:
$1,328,948

Rodrigo Sezinando

 - Kalshi

Rodrigo Sezinando - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Oct 31, 8:49 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Rodrigo Sezinando

View
100%
37%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$587,710
N/A
N/A
$374,356
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
53%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$883
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$431
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Sezinando to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
65%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$230
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Sezinando in Round 2

View
100%
71%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$86
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ends before Round 3?

View
100%
43%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
31%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Theodor Berggren

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$499,726
N/A
N/A
$363,268
Settled
No
polymarket

Theodor Berggren vs. Rodrigo Sezinando

View
0%
38%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$235,972
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
26%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,170
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Berggren to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
33%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$365
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Ends before Round 2?

View
0%
35%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$163
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Berggren in Round 2

View
0%
28%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$143
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
34%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Sezinando in Round 1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
39%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by decision?

View
0%
35%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Berggren in Round 1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Berggren in Round 3

View
0%
26%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Sezinando in Round 3

View
0%
28%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Decision or Draw

View
0%
35%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 21

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of specific outcomes in the UFC Fight Night bout between Theodor Berggren and Rodrigo Sezinando, encompassing win conditions and round-based predictions. Currently, the consensus probability of Rodrigo Sezinando winning in Round 2 is 94.9%, aggregating data from Kalshi and Polymarket. Resolution will be based on the official UFC result as reported at https://www.ufc.com/events. With a 93% probability, the second most likely outcome is that the fight will end before Round 3. Keep an eye on the fight itself, scheduled for resolution on November 1, 2026, to see if Sezinando can secure a Round 2 victory.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi markets lack resolution conditions for draws, no contests, or postponements, potentially creating a discrepancy with Polymarket's more comprehensive rules.Hero tip: Consider the risk of a non-outcome (draw, no contest) when trading on Kalshi, as these scenarios will not be accounted for in their market resolution.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to the official winner or '50-50' for draws, no contests, or postponements beyond November 14, 2026. Includes detailed resolution criteria for each market type (KO/TKO, submission, decision, rounds).
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if either fighter wins. Lacks specific resolution criteria for draws, no contests, or postponements, potentially leading to ambiguity in those scenarios.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Theodor Berggren" if Theodor Berggren is officially declared the winner of the fight against Rodrigo Sezinando at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026. It will resolve to "Rodrigo Sezinando" if Rodrigo Sezinando is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the official result of the professional MMA fight between Rodrigo Sezinando and Theodor Berggren, scheduled for October 31, 2026. If Sezinando wins, his market resolves to Yes; if Berggren wins, his market resolves to Yes. If the fight ends in a draw or no contest, both markets resolve to $0.50. Post-expiration result changes, disqualifications, or reversals do not affect resolution. If the fight is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the market remains open and resolves based on the final result. If the fight is cancelled or does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, both markets resolve to a fair price. Endorsement disclaimers apply regarding Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates predictions on the outcome of the Berggren vs. Sezinando fight from multiple platforms, currently Polymarket and Kalshi. It provides a consensus view of the probabilities for various outcomes, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. Total volume across these platforms currently stands at $1,328,948, with $1,293,220 traded in the last 24 hours. By tracking these markets, you can see how opinions shift as new information becomes available, offering a dynamic perspective on the fight’s potential results. This allows for a comprehensive understanding of expectations beyond any single prediction market.

Prediction market odds often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the differing incentives and information sources of participants. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profit, while prediction markets allow participants to freely express their beliefs, creating a more accurate reflection of true probabilities. This market, for example, may show a different probability for a Rodrigo Sezinando win than a typical sportsbook. Furthermore, prediction markets benefit from continuous updating as new information emerges, whereas sportsbook odds are typically adjusted less frequently. The combined volume of $1,328,948 suggests significant interest in this event.

Several factors could influence the probabilities in this market before the fight takes place. Any news regarding injuries to either fighter, changes in their training regimens, or even shifts in public perception could cause significant price movements. Unexpected announcements about weight class changes or potential opponents could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, general fight week hype and media coverage can introduce volatility as traders react to new information and adjust their predictions regarding the Berggren vs. Sezinando fight.