TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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UFC Fight Night: Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)
polymarket

What is the result of Gatto vs Kareckaite?

Volume:
$857,181

Fight to Go the Distance?

 - Polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 12, 2026

Closed: Oct 10, 5:54 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
26%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,453
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

100%
25%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$712
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Decision or Draw

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$57
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$56
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite

50%
1%
Yes 50¢No 50¢
—
N/A
$851,338
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
ResolvedResult not available
polymarket

Fight won by decision?

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$669
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

0%
46%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$450
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Gatto to win by KO/TKO?

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$215
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Ends before Round 3?

0%
18%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$158
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

0%
48%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$62
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Gatto in Round 1

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Kareckaite to win by KO/TKO?

0%
48%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

100%
11%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ends before Round 2?

0%
85%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Gatto in Round 2

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Gatto in Round 3

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Kareckaite in Round 1

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Kareckaite in Round 2

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Kareckaite in Round 3

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 19

Intro

This market tracks whether the UFC Fight Night bout between Melissa Gatto and Ernesta Kareckaite will be won by decision. Currently, Polymarket gives a 5.0% probability to a decision victory. The resolution source for this market is the official UFC event page at https://www.ufc.com/events. Keep an eye on the official fight card for UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan on October 10, 2026, as this will determine the official winner and resolve the market.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Melissa Gatto" if Melissa Gatto is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ernesta Kareckaite at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan, scheduled for October 10, 2026. It will resolve to "Ernesta Kareckaite" if Ernesta Kareckaite is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 24, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Frequently asked questions

Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously betting on both platforms. However, it’s important to remember that prediction market odds are dynamic and can shift rapidly based on new information and trading activity.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of a particular outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares in an outcome, its price increases, reflecting growing confidence. Conversely, selling pressure drives the price down. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds constantly adapt to the latest information and collective intelligence of the participants.

This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Gatto vs. Kareckaite fight as determined by the UFC. Specifically, the market will settle based on whether the fight concludes before or after the 1.5-round mark. The official fight result will be used to determine which outcome is declared the winner, and shares will be paid out accordingly to those who correctly predicted the duration of the fight.

Several signals could influence this market before Oct 11, 2026. Any news regarding fighter injuries, changes in training regimens, or even pre-fight press conference statements could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected betting trends in traditional sportsbooks might also prompt adjustments in this market. Furthermore, analysis from MMA experts and updated fight previews could sway opinions. A significant shift in public perception of either fighter's chances, driven by any of these factors, would likely be reflected in the trading volume and price movements within this market.