TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 5:54 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether the UFC Fight Night bout between Melissa Gatto and Ernesta Kareckaite will be won by decision. Currently, Polymarket gives a 5.0% probability to a decision victory. The resolution source for this market is the official UFC event page at https://www.ufc.com/events. Keep an eye on the official fight card for UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan on October 10, 2026, as this will determine the official winner and resolve the market.
This market will resolve to "Melissa Gatto" if Melissa Gatto is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ernesta Kareckaite at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan, scheduled for October 10, 2026. It will resolve to "Ernesta Kareckaite" if Ernesta Kareckaite is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 24, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of a particular outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares in an outcome, its price increases, reflecting growing confidence. Conversely, selling pressure drives the price down. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds constantly adapt to the latest information and collective intelligence of the participants.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Gatto vs. Kareckaite fight as determined by the UFC. Specifically, the market will settle based on whether the fight concludes before or after the 1.5-round mark. The official fight result will be used to determine which outcome is declared the winner, and shares will be paid out accordingly to those who correctly predicted the duration of the fight.
Several signals could influence this market before Oct 11, 2026. Any news regarding fighter injuries, changes in training regimens, or even pre-fight press conference statements could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected betting trends in traditional sportsbooks might also prompt adjustments in this market. Furthermore, analysis from MMA experts and updated fight previews could sway opinions. A significant shift in public perception of either fighter's chances, driven by any of these factors, would likely be reflected in the trading volume and price movements within this market.