TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Main Card)
polymarket
kalshi

UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Main Card)

Volume:
$2,015,964

Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil

 - Polymarket

Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 25, 2026

Closed: Jun 20, 11:59 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$779,537
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Christian Rodriguez

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$400,943
N/A
N/A
$282,456
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$221
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Hyder Amil

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$827,733
N/A
N/A
$718,354
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,710
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,074
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Rodriguez to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$627
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$72
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$27
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Amil to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether the featherweight bout between Christian Rodriguez and Hyder Amil will end within the first half-round or extend beyond it. Aggregated across Polymarket and Kalshi, the consensus probability for the O/U 0.5 Rounds outcome stands at 100.0%, with resolution determined by official UFC records. Watch for the fight's scheduled date of June 20, 2026, as part of UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi, when the actual round duration will be recorded and markets will settle.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket provides comprehensive, edge-case-aware market definitions across 9 questions with explicit 50-50 resolution for draws and cancellations. Kalshi provides only a single binary market on fight outcome with no specification of draw, no-contest, or postponement handling.Hero tip: Polymarket markets offer superior clarity and granularity. Use Polymarket for precise outcome trading (winner, method, distance). Kalshi's binary is ambiguous on edge cases—confirm draw/no-contest resolution with Kalshi before trading.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: 9 distinct markets covering winner, distance, KO/TKO (general and fighter-specific), submission, and round thresholds (0.5, 1.5, 2.5). All markets explicitly resolve to 50-50 if fight is declared draw, technical draw, no contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 4, 2026. Round threshold markets resolve 50-50 if fight ends exactly at threshold. Source: Official UFC information.
  • Kalshi: Single binary market: resolves Yes if either Hyder Amil or Christian Rodriguez wins the fight originally scheduled for June 20, 2026. No specification of draw, no-contest, cancellation, or postponement handling. Source: Not explicitly stated.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Christian Rodriguez" if Christian Rodriguez is officially declared the winner of the fight against Hyder Amil at UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi, scheduled for June 20, 2026. It will resolve to "Hyder Amil" if Hyder Amil is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 4, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

Resolution depends on the fight outcome: if the bout is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled fight concludes within two weeks. If the fight results in a tie or no contest, both outcomes resolve to 50/50. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled beyond two weeks, the market resolves to a fair price in accordance with established rules.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like those tracked here operate on peer-to-peer pricing rather than sportsbook spreads, meaning odds reflect what traders actually believe rather than what a bookmaker sets to balance liability. Sportsbooks adjust lines to manage risk and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets reward accurate forecasters directly. This often makes prediction markets more efficient at pricing uncertain events, especially when sharp bettors participate heavily. However, sportsbook odds may move faster on breaking news due to centralized management. Comparing this market's consensus to major sportsbook lines can reveal where public perception diverges from professional oddsmakers.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which naturally creates price gaps. Polymarket and Kalshi use distinct market mechanics—one relies on automated market makers while the other uses order books—leading to different equilibrium prices for the same outcome. Geographic restrictions, user base composition, and platform-specific incentives also play a role. These spreads typically narrow closer to the event as arbitrageurs exploit the difference, but temporary divergences can persist if one platform has deeper liquidity or attracts more informed traders on a particular side.

Fighter injury reports, training camp updates, and official weigh-in results can shift odds significantly as new information surfaces. Social media activity, interview statements, and analyst commentary often influence trader sentiment, especially if either fighter appears unusually confident or concerned. Late-breaking news—such as a change in opponent, venue, or fight rules—would trigger sharp repricing. Betting action from known sharp bettors or large position moves on either platform can cascade into broader price movement. As the fight date approaches, any credible reports about fighter conditioning, weight cuts, or personal circumstances will likely drive volatility in this market.