TOTAL VOLUME:
$69.1b
24H VOL:
$337,598,759
24H TRANSACTIONS:
656,524,561
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,520,909,939
641,743
Markets across
13,975
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,195
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Time left: 16d:13h:50m
U.S. Open: Will Jayden Trey Schaper finish top 10?
$
$20
$50
$100
$500
Trade on Kalshi
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 8¢ buys you 1,250 shares | Odds: 8% Total Payout: $1,250 | Net Profit: $1,150 Multiplier: 12.50x | ROI: 1,150% APY not meaningful 16 days to resolution
Trade on Polymarket
At 9.1¢ buys you 1,099 shares | Odds: 9% Total Payout: $1,099 | Net Profit: $999 Multiplier: 10.99x | ROI: 999% APY not meaningful 2 days to resolutionIntro
This market tracks whether professional golfers will finish in the top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open tournament. The consensus probability that Jayden Trey Schaper finishes top 10 stands at 80.0%, aggregated across Kalshi and Polymarket. Resolution is determined by the Official PGA Tour website. Watch for the tournament conclusion on July 5, 2026, when final leaderboards will be posted and all top-10 finishes confirmed.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Official PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/)Core resolution logic:
- Market resolves YES if the named player finishes in the top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open championship
- Ties are included; a tied 10th place counts as a top-10 finish
- Market resolves NO if the player finishes 11th or worse, misses the cut, withdraws, or is disqualified
- Resolution is based solely on the final official leaderboard published by the PGA Tour
- Each of the 157 markets resolves independently based on that individual player's final position
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Tied Finishes: Any player tied for 10th place or better resolves YES. Ties do not eliminate a player from top-10 consideration.
- Missed Cut or Withdrawal: If a player misses the cut or withdraws before completion, the market resolves NO.
- Disqualification: If a player is disqualified, the market resolves NO regardless of their score at the time of disqualification.
- Result Announcement Deadline (Polymarket): Polymarket specifies June 27, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET as the deadline for result announcement. If official results are not published by that time, Polymarket markets resolve NO. Kalshi does not specify a hard deadline but implies resolution upon official PGA Tour publication.
Timing:
Resolution occurs immediately upon official publication of final results by the PGA Tour following the conclusion of the 2026 U.S. Open championship. Polymarket enforces a June 27, 2026 8:00 PM ET deadline for result announcement.Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open tournament, including ties. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If final results are not announced by June 27, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).
Kalshi
Each golfer's market resolves to Yes if that golfer finishes in the top 10 (including ties) at the 2026 U.S. Open. If a golfer forfeits, withdraws, or does not participate prior to teeing off, the market resolves to Fair Market Price. If a golfer tees off but subsequently withdraws or forfeits, the market resolves to No. Ties are included in the top 10 determination.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket operate on continuous trading rather than fixed lines, meaning odds shift in real time as traders buy and sell shares. Sportsbooks, by contrast, set odds and adjust them periodically based on liability and action flow. Prediction market prices often reflect longer-term consensus and can diverge significantly from sportsbook odds, especially on niche outcomes or when retail and sharp money disagree. For this market, comparing the two can reveal value opportunities if one venue is pricing a player's top-10 chances differently than the other.
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, all of which influence how prices settle. Kalshi and Polymarket may also have slightly different market mechanics or user bases with varying risk appetites. Timing differences in when large trades execute, regional trader preferences, and platform-specific incentives can cause temporary or sustained price gaps. Arbitrage traders often exploit these spreads, but friction costs and withdrawal delays mean small divergences persist naturally across venues.
This market resolves around Jul 5, 2026, once the U.S. Open tournament concludes and final leaderboard positions are confirmed. The outcome for each player is determined by whether they finish in the top 10 of the field, verified against credible public sources covering professional golf. Traders holding shares in players who achieve a top-10 finish will see their positions settle to full value, while those who miss the cut or finish outside the top 10 will see their shares expire worthless.
Major PGA Tour events, player injuries, and recent form leading up to the U.S. Open will all shift odds significantly. A player's performance at other major championships or tour events in the months before June can alter perceptions of their top-10 chances. Course conditions, weather forecasts closer to the tournament date, and any late-breaking news about player fitness or equipment changes may trigger sharp repricing. Additionally, large trades by informed traders or sudden shifts in retail interest can move individual player odds noticeably, especially for less-favored contenders.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.