TOTAL VOLUME:
$69.1b
24H VOL:
$337,598,759
24H TRANSACTIONS:
656,524,561
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,520,909,939
641,743
Markets across
13,975
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,195
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Time left: 16d:13h:49m
U.S. Open: Will Hamilton Coleman finish top 20?
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Intro
This market tracks whether professional golfers will finish in the top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open tournament. Hamilton Coleman's probability of finishing top 20 stands at 79.0% based on aggregated data from Kalshi and Polymarket, with resolution determined by official PGA Tour website results. Watch for the tournament conclusion on July 5, 2026, when final leaderboard standings will settle all top 20 finish markets.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Official PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/)Core resolution logic:
- Market resolves YES if the named player finishes in the top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open, including ties.
- Market resolves NO if the named player finishes outside the top 20, misses the cut, withdraws, or is disqualified.
- Ties are explicitly included in the top 20 definition; a player tied for 20th place resolves YES.
- Resolution is based solely on final official PGA Tour tournament results.
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Tied Finishes: Players tied for 20th place or better resolve YES. The top 20 includes all players at or better than the 20th-place score, even if multiple players share that score.
- Missed Cut or Withdrawal: If a player misses the cut, withdraws, or is disqualified, the market resolves NO.
- Results Delay (Polymarket Only): Polymarket includes a backstop: if final results are not published by June 27, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET, the market resolves NO.
- Tournament Cancellation: If the 2026 U.S. Open is cancelled or not held, markets would resolve NO (no finish possible).
Timing:
Resolution occurs after the conclusion of the 2026 U.S. Open tournament and publication of official final results on the PGA Tour website, expected in mid-June 2026. Polymarket enforces a hard deadline of June 27, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open tournament, including ties. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If final results are not announced by June 27, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).
Kalshi
Each golfer's market resolves to Yes if that golfer finishes in the top 20 (including ties) at the 2026 U.S. Open. If a golfer forfeits, withdraws, or does not participate prior to teeing off, the market resolves to Fair Market Price. If a golfer tees off but subsequently withdraws or forfeits, the market resolves to No. Ties are included in the top 20 determination.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket operate on peer-to-peer trading, where odds emerge from supply and demand rather than a fixed sportsbook margin. This often produces tighter spreads and faster price discovery than traditional betting sites, especially for niche outcomes. However, sportsbooks may offer deeper liquidity and promotional incentives. Prediction market prices tend to reflect informed trader conviction more directly, while sportsbooks balance liability and profit targets. For golf events, comparing both sources can reveal arbitrage opportunities or consensus shifts in real time.
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, regulatory frameworks, and liquidity pools, leading to natural price variation. Kalshi and Polymarket may also settle outcomes using slightly different verification timelines or data sources, creating temporary gaps. Trading volume concentration on one platform can amplify volatility or lag in price adjustment. Arbitrage traders exploit these spreads, but friction costs and platform-specific rules can prevent instant convergence. Monitoring both venues reveals where conviction is strongest and where mispricing may exist.
This market resolves around Jul 5, 2026, once the U.S. Open tournament concludes and final leaderboard positions are confirmed. The outcome is verified against credible public reporting of the official tournament results. Each player's top-20 finish status is determined by their final score relative to the field; ties are resolved according to standard PGA Tour protocols. Both platforms will lock in outcomes based on the verified final standings, ensuring consistency across the prediction market ecosystem.
Recent tournament form, injury reports, and course conditions leading up to the U.S. Open will drive significant price shifts. Major PGA Tour results in the weeks before the event can elevate or diminish player odds. Weather forecasts, course setup announcements, and player withdrawals trigger immediate repricing. Media coverage of favorites and dark horses influences retail trader participation. Late-breaking news—such as a player's poor performance at a warm-up event or a sudden illness—can cause sharp moves. Tracking these catalysts helps traders anticipate and react to market swings.
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