TOTAL VOLUME:
$71.3b
24H VOL:
$795,086,098
24H TRANSACTIONS:
683,469,929
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,943,078,483
638,610
Markets across
13,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,236
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
48%
VS.
Kalshi:
52%
Will Wyndham Clark win the U.S. Open?
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$100
$500
Trade on Kalshi
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 72¢ buys you 139 shares | Odds: 72% Total Payout: $139 | Net Profit: $39 Multiplier: 1.39x | ROI: 39% APY not meaningful
Trade on Polymarket
At 1.6¢ buys you 6,250 shares | Odds: 2% Total Payout: $6,250 | Net Profit: $6,150 Multiplier: 62.50x | ROI: 6,150% APY not meaningfulIntro
This market tracks who will win the 2026 PGA Tour U.S. Open golf tournament. Across Polymarket and Kalshi, the consensus probability for Wyndham Clark to win stands at 80.0%, with Scottie Scheffler at 13.5%. The aggregated view combines individual player markets from both platforms, with resolution tied to official PGA Tour results. Watch for the tournament conclusion on June 21, 2026, when the winner will be determined and markets will settle accordingly.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi does not explicitly address unlisted winners or tie-breaking, while Polymarket includes 'Other' outcome and detailed tie-breaking rules. Both use PGA Tour official results as source, but coverage scope differs.Hero Tip:
Monitor Polymarket's 'Any Other Player' market as a proxy for unlisted-winner risk. If an unlisted player wins, Kalshi's named-player markets will likely resolve No, but Polymarket's 'Other' will resolve Yes. Conversely, if a listed player wins, both platforms should align. Watch for tie scenarios—Polymarket's alphabetical tie-breaker may differ from Kalshi's unstated handling.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
157 individual Yes/No markets on named players only. Resolution: Yes if named player wins U.S. Open. No explicit handling of unlisted winners or tie-breaking. Quote: 'If [Player] wins the U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
32 individual Yes/No markets on named players, plus 1 'Any Other Player' market covering unlisted winners. Explicit tie-breaking by alphabetical last name and 'Other' resolution for unlisted winners. Quote: 'If an unlisted player wins the U.S. Open tournament this market will resolve to Other. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.'
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 U.S. Open tournament. If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the U.S. Open tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No". If an unlisted player wins the U.S. Open tournament this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Tour official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If no winner is announced by June 27, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).
Kalshi
Each market resolves to Yes if the specified golfer wins the 2026 U.S. Open professional golf tournament. If a golfer forfeits, withdraws, or does not participate prior to teeing off, their Tournament Winner market resolves to No. Kalshi is not affiliated with, associated with, authorized by, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the PGA.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price golf outcomes differently because they operate under distinct regulatory frameworks and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and manage risk, while prediction markets reflect pure trader consensus through continuous price discovery. This market often shows tighter spreads and faster reaction times to breaking news, since traders profit directly from accurate predictions rather than betting volume. Comparing both sources helps identify value and consensus strength.
Kalshi and Polymarket may show different odds on the same outcome because each platform has its own liquidity pools, user base, and trading mechanics. Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Platform-specific factors—such as fee structures, available order types, and the timing of large trades—can create temporary price gaps. Arbitrage traders often exploit these spreads, but differences persist due to geographic user distribution and varying levels of market depth across platforms.
Major catalysts include player injuries, recent tournament performances, course conditions, and weather forecasts closer to the event date. Shifts in player form—particularly wins or missed cuts on the PGA Tour—often trigger repricing. Media narratives around favorites and dark horses, plus betting syndicates' large position changes, can also drive volatility. Monitoring professional golf news and tour standings helps anticipate market moves before they're fully priced in.
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